Early warning system of the seasonal west nile virus infection risk in humans in northern greece, 2020–2024

The forecast of an infectious disease outbreak informs public health decision-makers and contributes to health risk assessment and the organization of response actions to reduce human health impact. This study aims to expand a previously developed climate-dependent spatial epidemiological model for the transmission risk of WNV into a forecasting tool. The model was applied at the municipal level in the regions of Central Macedonia and Thessaly in Greece for the period 2020-2023 and classifies the municipalities according to the risk level of occurrence of a WNV human case within each forecast season. The model produces seasonal forecasts updated monthly throughout the entire mosquito breeding season (April-September). From the first forecast of the year (April), human cases were correctly predicted at 74% of the infected municipalities in Central Macedonia and 71% of the infected municipalities in Thessaly, outscoring the skill thresholds embedded in the surveillance data. The observed number of infected humans was also within the predicted range, highlighting the part of the region with the most expected WNV human cases. The approach shows that a climate-dependent epidemiological model at local level, incorporating entomological data to predict the risk of WNV cases, can be a useful tool in planning control strategies.

ANGELOU Anastasia;  PAPPA Areti;  MARKOV Peter;  GEWEHR Sandra;  STILIANAKIS Nikolaos;  KIOUTSIOUKIS Ioannis; 

2025-03-05

NATURE PORTFOLIO

JRC139036

2045-2322 (online),   

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91996-9,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139036,   

10.1038/s41598-025-91996-9 (online),