Intensive agriculture has led to significant soil degradation and nutrient surpluses in the EU, prompting the need for more sustainable practices. Organic agriculture is often considered a strategy to produce food more sustainably, albeit with challenges such as yield reduction. Here, we estimate the impacts of expanding organic agriculture to 25\% of agricultural land in the EU and UK—a key target of the European Commission's Farm to Fork Strategy—using a spatially explicit biogeochemical model, focusing on changes in crop yields in combination with C, N, and P fluxes and stocks. Achieving the 25\% target could improve 0.8\%–1.4\% of degraded soil areas (out of ~49.0 million ha that exceed at least one degradation criterion based on N surplus, excess soil P, or soil erosion thresholds), quantifiably reduce dependency on mineral fertilizers (P by 15.8\%–16.0\% and N by 15.2\%–15.7\%), and either lessen or maintain current eutrophication impacts on freshwater fish. However, these benefits come with a trade-off of about 6.5\% reduction in average yields of grain and tuber, partly due to increased fodder production replacing grain and tuber crops in the rotation. Applying the 25\% target area EU-wide or per member state minimally affects the overall results. An additional cover crop scenario demonstrated the benefits of increased N fixation, improved yields, and mitigating SOC decline, but also resulted in higher impacts on freshwater biodiversity due to increased N losses. Thus, it highlights the importance of considering interconnected N, P, and C cycles alongside crop yields and potential feedbacks. This approach offers valuable insights into the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural practices and environmental consequences at high spatial resolution.
MUNTWYLER Anna;
LUGATO Emanuele;
PANAGOS Panos;
SCHERER Laura;
MULLER Adrian;
PFISTER Stephan;
2026-07-14
WILEY
JRC139094
1365-2486 (online),
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.70973,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139094,
10.1111/gcb.70973 (online),
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