State of the art modelling for the Black Sea ecosystem to support European policies

In recent years, the JRC has developed a scientific and modelling tool, the Blue2 Modelling Framework (Blue2 MF) to support the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The recent Administrative Arrangement (AA) (N° 090201/2022/885171/AA/ENV.C.2 - "MSFD 2023-2026"), signed between Directorate General for Environment (ENV) and Directorate General Joint Research Centre (JRC), (Sustainable Resources, Ocean and Water Unit [D.02]), aims to further develop the Blue2 MF in support of the implementation and potential revision of the MSFD. Specifically, the Blue2 MF aims at analysing the impacts of policy options on marine environmental status (through the evaluation of MSFD descriptors and criteria) by modelling of scenarios, with the goal of providing independent and evidence-based support in the assessment of the status of implementation throughout the whole policy cycle of the MSFD. In this context, this paper further extends the capacities of the Blue2 MF, covering more EU marine regions, in this case the higher trophic level (HTL) model of the Black Sea ecosystem. This paper, which is part of Deliverable 1.1 of the AA, includes a description of the modelled basin, configuration/set up and referenced datasets. The model represented the mid-1990s’ conditions in the Black Sea and included the representation of the ecosystem from primary producers to marine mammals and sea birds. The model simulations covered a period between from 1995-2021. The results showed that gulls & cormorant seabirds, sprat, horse mackerel and mugilidae had structuring role in the food web. Fishing fleet had indirect negative impacts on marine mammals in addition to commercially exploited species. Analysis of the ecosystem indicators confirmed the overall temporal degradation of the Black Sea when comparing results with other Black Sea models, whilst the comparison with the Mediterranean Sea allowed us to identify comparable indicators between similar model structures. The spatial/temporal model successfully simulated the overall ongoing declining dynamics of the Black Sea ecosystem as the biomasses of the majority of the functional groups had significant decreasing trends during the simulation period. This model is the first attempt to represent the historical and current state of the Black Sea ecosystem spatially and temporally, serving as a reference baseline for evaluating policy scenarios and assisting policy makers in the evaluation of potential environmental impacts of management options.

SERPETTI Natalia;  PIRODDI Chiara;  AKOGLU Ekin;  GARCIA GORRIZ Elisa;  MILADINOVA-MARINOVA Svetla;  MACIAS MOY Diego; 

2025-01-20

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE

JRC139246

1932-6203 (online),   

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0312170,    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312170,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139246,   

10.1371/journal.pone.0312170 (online),