Title: Impact of Accident Precursors on Risk Estimates from Accident Databases
Authors: KIRCHSTEIGER Christian
Citation: Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries vol. 10 p. 159-167
Publication Year: 1997
JRC N°: JRC13937
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC13937
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The significance of quantitative risk estimates depends not only on the number of accident events included, but also on the criteria differentiating accidents and accident precursors. Based on exemplary data from the European Commission's Major Accident Reporting system, the conventional risk estimator associated with the frequency of several types of major accidents is quantified. Bayesian calculations show that incorporating accident precursors in the accident frequency estimation results, under certain conditions, in significantly increased frequency estimates.
JRC Directorate:Joint Research Centre Historical Collection

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