Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry.
TAGOMORI Isabela;
DIUANA Fabio;
BERNARDO BAPTISTA Luiz;
BERTRAM Christoph;
DAFNOMILIS Ioannis;
DROUET Laurent;
FOSSE Florian;
FRAGKIADAKIS Dimitris;
FRICKO Oliver;
HOOIJSCHUUR Elena;
IYER Gokul;
KIKSTRA Jarmo;
KREY Volker;
LUDERER Gunnar;
OU Yang;
ALELUIA REIS Lara;
RICHTERS Oliver;
ROCHEDO Pedro;
VRONTISI Zoi;
WEITZEL Matthias;
ZWERLING Matthew;
VAN RUIJVEN Bas;
SCHAEFFER Roberto;
VAN VUUREN Detlef;
2026-05-13
NATURE PORTFOLIO
JRC139379
1758-6798 (online),
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02615-y,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139379,
10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y (online),
| Name | Country | City | Type |
|---|
This document is only visible at the Commission level.
You are not authorized to publish or distribute it outside the European Commission.
This is a public document. You can share this publication.
Datasets
| ID | Title | Public URL |
|---|
Dataset collections
| ID | Acronym | Title | Public URL |
|---|
Scripts / source codes
| Description | Public URL |
|---|
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type |
|---|