Coastal flood impacts and lost ecosystem services along Europe’s outermost regions and overseas countries and territories

Climate change is expected to result in rising seas, exacerbating coastal floods and erosion. Remote islands are projected to be among the most challenged regions, due to their geographic isolation and fragile economies. While, Small Island Developing States have been attracting the attention of scientists and policy makers, Europe’s Outermost Regions (ORs) and Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) remain poorly studied in terms of their impacts from Sea Level Rise (SLR). Here we carry out a data-modelling framework to comprehensively study risks of flooding, the submergence of flat regions, and coastal erosion along coastlines of ORs and OCTs. Our study shows that under a high emissions scenario by 2150 annually nearly 3000 km2 is expected to be flooded, one third of which by tidal flooding, while 150 km2 of land will be lost by coastal erosion. This translates into an annual exposure to coastal inundation of up to half a million of people and an economic damage of 5.9 € billion per year - a 40-fold increase from today. Our study shows the increasing benefits in time of stringent climate mitigation, which could nearly halve these impacts in the long run. However, sea levels will continue to rise long after net zero carbon is reached, and so will the consequent impacts, highlighting the critical importance of proactive efforts to increase the resilience of these vulnerable regions against rising seas.

VOUSDOUKAS Michail;  PAPROTNY Dominik;  MENTASCHI Lorenzo;  MONIOUDI Isavella;  FEYEN Luc; 

2026-02-02

NATURE PORTFOLIO

JRC139853

2041-1723 (online),   

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66391-7,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139853,   

10.1038/s41467-025-66391-7 (online),