Energy System Modelling For Clean Energy Technology Scenarios
This study examines the impacts of enhancing technology progress in clean energy technologies on the global energy system and economy. The analysis focuses on eight thematic technology groups, including wind, solar, batteries, hydrogen and fuel cells, carbon capture, direct air capture and synfuels, biofuels, and heat pumps. Two policy scenarios are considered: a 2°C scenario with stringent carbon policies and a Reference scenario driven primarily by market forces.
The study examines the technology adoption patterns within each technology group for the two scenarios, highlighting the differences in the evolution of costs, capacities and production. Moreover, the study analyses the overall impacts in terms of CO2 reduction, investment needs and energy supply costs of enhanced learning within each technology group, as well as for combining enhanced learning across multiple technology groups. The results show that enhanced learning can lead to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, investment needs, and energy supply costs. Moreover, enhanced learning results in favourable in socio-economic outcomes (e.g. economy-wide investments, consumption and energy prices). However, the study suggests that enhancing technology progress is not at all a substitute for stringent climate policies to reduce CO2 emissions.
SCHMITZ Andreas;
SCHADE Burkhard;
GARAFFA Rafael;
KERAMIDAS Kimon;
DOWLING Paul;
FOSSE Florian;
DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana;
RUSS Peter;
WEITZEL Matthias;
2024-12-23
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC140568
978-92-68-25268-0 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40247,
OP KJ-01-25-154-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140568,
10.2760/5626925 (online),
