Risk Assessment ISV 2025 according to Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866
Article 13 of Regulation (EU) 2019/631 requires the type-approval authorities to verify the CO2 emission and fuel consumption values of light-duty vehicles in-service. Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2867 sets out the guiding principles and criteria for defining the procedures for that verification, while Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866 determines the actual verification procedures.
Article 3(4) of that Implementing Regulation requires the Commission to set out a methodology for assessing the risk that in-service verification (ISV) families may include vehicles with a deviation in the CO2 emission values and to publish each year a report describing that methodology and listing those families with the highest risk of including such vehicles. JRC has been tasked to perform the risk assessment on behalf of the Commission.
This is the second annual report describing the methodology for the assessment, and the main findings. The risk assessment methodology described was built upon the approach established in last year’s report, using the concept of the Composite Risk Index (CRI). The CRI combines the probability and severity of a specific occurrence. Probability levels are determined based on the total number of new vehicles from the in-service verification family that have been placed on the Union market. For the severity determination, the data collected pursuant to Article 14 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/392 and the real-world data, as referred to in Article 3(3)(e) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866 have been used. In addition, tests performed through the Commission’s market surveillance test campaigns and from the in-service conformity tests pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2017/1151 have been part of this year’s risk assessment.
This report identifies the ISV families with the highest risk of including vehicles with a deviation in CO2 emissions values. Based on the risk assessment and random selection, 333 unique interpolation families, representing 250 unique ISV families, have been identified as having such high risk. Additionally, some interpolation families were reported as part of the annual CO2 monitoring for light-duty vehicles, but could not be found amongst those reported to the Commission under Article 14 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/392. As a result, a number (24) of those missing interpolation families with the highest vehicle registration numbers in the last three years and manufacturers with the highest percentage of missing families, has been selected and included in the list of high risk families for the 2025 in-service verification. In addition, and to fill the gap between the 2025 ISV testing needs and to cover all manufacturers, the final list of families includes also 13 interpolation families selected based on medium risk or the highest registration volumes.
In total, the ISV 2025 testing plan comprises 370 unique interpolation families. To further support the vehicle selection for the 2025 in-service verification, this report also links potential risks associated with ISV families flagged as high risk to chassis-dynamometer testing, road load tests, or the implementation of artificial strategies. Consequently, each of the listed ISV families was marked for specific types of tests based on the outcomes of this risk assessment.
PAVLOVIC Jelica;
KOMNOS Dimitrios;
SUAREZ CORUJO Jaime;
KTISTAKIS Markos;
LAVERDE MARIN Andres;
PASSIER Gerben;
TANSINI Alessandro;
SAPORITI Francesca;
FONTARAS Georgios;
2025-02-12
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC140608
978-92-68-24161-5 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40211,
OP KJ-01-25-058-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140608,
10.2760/0897088 (online),
