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Examining the reasons for changes in buildings' energy consumption in United States, China and the European Union

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Buildings are responsible for one third of global operational energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Addressing this impact requires the development and monitoring of effective policies, supported by detailed and costly data on building stock and energy use and their corresponding analysis. The paper proposes a pyramidal approach to decompose building energy use into drivers—activity, structure, and efficiency —considering factors like population, floor area, urbanisation, building size, occupancy, and climate. Energy use intensity measures efficiency, while swifts among the residential and tertiary subsectors are captured as structural impacts. The relevance of the methodology is underscored by its potential to assess and quantify the causes of energy consumption changes, guiding policy-making. Applying this approach to China, the United States (US), and the European Union (EU), the paper criticises the data unavailability, disaggregates the energy consumption changes, outlines policy implications, and validates the methodology's added value. The analysis reveals the increased floor area as the primary driver of rising energy consumption over the past two decades, which could be moderated by managing urbanisation rates and compensated by the efficiency improvement. While this has been sufficient to stabilise consumption in the EU, a slight rebound in the US is observed due to a higher number of buildings per capita. In China, the urbanisation trend behind the rise in energy demand approaches now EU levels, suggesting the need for action to control its future growth. Despite limited geographical coverage, this study provides a pertinent analysis of almost half of the building energy consumption in the world (China, US, EU), offering insights into the sector's current state and directions for future policy development.
2025-02-24
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
JRC140721
1872-6178 (online),   
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778825001914#f0010,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140721,   
10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.115461 (online),   
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