Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs) require regional policymakers to develop new forms of anticipatory capacity. This is defined as the ability to navigate uncertainty, align diverse stakeholders and direct development towards long-term societal goals. This study argues that, when implemented throughout the entire policy cycle, strategic foresight is a vital tool for building such capacity and positioning regions for transformative resilience.
Using an abductive, qualitative comparative case study design, the research examines three regional foresight processes in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region (Finland), Scotland (UK) and the Basque Country (Spain). The analysis is structured around three integrated dimensions: shared place-based understanding, anticipatory capacity, and reflexivity and monitoring. Rather than introducing new foresight components, the primary contribution lies in the integrated operationalisation of these established dimensions across the full policy cycle within GSC-oriented regional policy contexts.
The findings suggest that all three regions use foresight to identify crisis-induced opportunities and align their assets with development priorities driven by challenges. However, their positions differ along the reorientation–transformation continuum. Helsinki-Uusimaa and Scotland primarily demonstrate reorientation, redirecting existing innovation system assets towards new objectives. In contrast, the Basque Country exhibits transformational intent, evidenced by more profound structural reconfiguration. These variations are influenced by pre-existing institutional resources and the specific nature of the GSC addressed.
This study helps to bridge the gap between conceptual discussions of transformative innovation and the practical application of foresight in regional policy. It provides policymakers with grounded insights to help them build anticipatory capacity in response to complex, place-specific societal challenges.
CAPPELLANO Francesco;
MATTI Cristian;
VIDMAR Matjaz;
2026-09-11
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
JRC140771
1879-3274 (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140771,
10.1016/j.techsoc.2026.103453 (online),
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