Climate change impacts on floods in West Africa: New insight from two large-scale hydrological models

West Africa is projected to face unprecedented shifts in temperature and extreme precipitation patterns as a result of climate change. The devastating impacts of river flooding are already being felt in most West African countries, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive insights into the frequency and magnitude of floods to guide the design of hydraulic infrastructure for effective flood risk mitigation and water resource management. Despite its significant socio-economic and environmental impacts, flood hazards remain poorly documented in West Africa due to the data-related challenges. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap by providing a large-scale analysis of flood frequency and magnitudes across West Africa, focusing on how climate change may influence future flood trends. To achieve this, we have used two large-scale hydrological models driven by five bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was utilized to analyze trends and detect change points by comparing multiple non-stationary GEV models across historical and future periods for a set of 58 catchments. Future flood patterns were first assessed by comparing two 30-year periods (a near-term future [2031–2060] and a long-term future [2071–2100]), against a historical reference period [1985–2014]. Both hydrological models consistently projected increases in flood frequency and magnitude across West Africa, despite their differences in hydrological processes representation and calibration schemes. Flood magnitude is projected to increase for 94 % of the stations, with some locations experiencing increases exceeding 45 % in magnitude. In addition, the majority of significant trends are identified starting in the historical period, predominantly before 1970, under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The findings from this study provide regional-scale insights into the evolving flood risks across West Africa and highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to safeguard populations and infrastructure against the increasing threat of flood hazards.

DIOP Serigne Bassirou;  EKOLU Job;  TRAMBLAY Yves;  DIEPPOIS Bastien;  GRIMALDI Stefania;  BODIAN Ansoumana;  BLANCHET Juliette;  RAMESHWARAN Ponnambalam;  SALAMON Peter;  SULTAN Benjamin; 

2026-01-12

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH

JRC140996

1684-9981 (online),   

https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/3161/2025/,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140996,   

10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025 (online),