Climate stress test of the global supply chain network: the case of river floods
JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, 09/2025
This study investigates how extreme flood events can indirectly impact the global supply chain through production disruptions. Using a data-driven, agent-based network model that combines company-level data with flood hazard maps, the research simulates the transmission and amplification of shocks. The findings emphasize that the size of inventories is crucial; a lean-inventory system leads to faster shock propagation, higher losses, and fewer recoveries compared to an abundant-inventory system. Additionally, the study identifies that the number and criticality of flooded companies’ trade links, along with the magnitude of the flood, correlate with the speed and severity of contagion. Interestingly, a key metric —the average criticality of affected firms’ outgoing links— consistently peaks before the onset of the shock’s fast-propagation regime. This could serve as an early warning indicator, giving businesses and policymakers precious time to react. By identifying these critical vulnerabilities, this research provides a framework for enhancing the resilience of global supply chains in the face of increasing climate-related and other risks.
OJEA FERREIRO Javier;
PANZICA Roberto;
PAPADOPOULOS Georgios;
2025-06-30
European Commission
JRC141288
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141288,
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