Stress and resilience in northern European marine ecosystems

In the field of resilience, there is a current debate between those that find evidence of hysterical regimes shifts (i.e., a sudden change of state, where the path of return is different from the path of departure) in every marine ecosystem they investigate and those who are skeptical about this ubiquity. Here, we used the same technique of the first group but taking a precautionary approach. We let the data tell us whether a folded stability landscape adequately described the development of the ecosystem or not. We applied this approach to four data-rich northern European ecosystems and found evidence in two of them, the Baltic and the North Sea, but not in the Icelandic Waters and the Barents Sea. Marine ecosystems are facing multiple pressures from human activities, such as fishing and nutrient inputs from farming and agriculture, compounded by the global effects of climate change. As a result, the ecosystem services that societies depend on are at risk from the cumulative impact of these pressures. To better understand how different ecosystems respond, it is essential to assess their resilience. While predicting ecosystem resilience remains challenging, significant progress has been made in developing methods to measure it. In this study, we assessed resilience in four northern European marine ecosystems: the Icelandic Waters, the Barents Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea, spanning 3 to 5 decades. “Folded stability landscapes” were constructed for the Baltic and North Sea. This region provides a unique setting, with a south-north gradient from temperate to subarctic environments and a southeast-northwest gradient from open to semienclosed topographies. The Icelandic Waters and Barents Sea evolved relatively continuously, while the Baltic Sea and North Sea underwent more drastic changes. By comparing results across these gradients, we explore the role of isolation, level of pressures, and food web complexity in shaping resilience patterns and discuss the implications for managing resilient marine ecosystems in the future.

LLOPE Marcos;  BLENCKNER Thorsten;  VASILAKOPOULOS Paris;  MCGINTY Niall;  LYNAM Christopher;  HELAOUET Pierre;  MOELLMANN Christian;  FRELAT Romain;  DURANT Joel;  STIGE Leif;  STENSETH Nils; 

2026-02-25

NATL ACAD SCIENCES

JRC141381

1091-6490 (online),   

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2527939123,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141381,   

10.1073/pnas.2527939123 (online),