Evaluation of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service methane products 2019-2023
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission. Its aim is to provide environmental data related to air quality and climate change in support of decision makers, business and citizens. This report provides an independent evaluation of CAMS re-analyses of methane (CH4) concentrations and fluxes based on inverse modelling, as well as near real-time (NRT) analyses and reanalyses of CH4 concentrations based on ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). CH4 simulated concentrations are compared to comprehensive observational datasets. CH4 fluxes are evaluated using model results from TM5-4DVAR inverse modelling system developed at European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). CAMS CH4 concentrations based on inverse modelling show a good agreement with surface-based observations and free troposphere measurements. However, simulated concentrations are underestimated in the stratosphere, suggesting that the transport and/or chemical scheme should be revised. A very close agreement is found between JRC and CAMS surface fluxes. NRT analyses and re-analyses of CH4 concentrations based on the IFS system show overall larger biases than the inversions, as well as an incorrect representation of CH4 seasonality and an overestimation of stratospheric concentrations. To improve the accuracy of these models, we recommend revising the representation of CH4 sources, sinks, and transport processes.
SEGATO Delia;
GRAZIOSI Francesco;
MANCA Giovanni;
2025-05-22
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC141659
978-92-68-26806-3 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40299,
OP KJ-01-25-249-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141659,
10.2760/8653047 (online),
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