Average yield outlook for winter crops, despite strong rainfall deficit in the east
Persistent drier-than-usual weather negatively affected winter cereals in the east, while two cold spells during late spring reduced the yield potential of rapeseed in the west. Elsewhere, predominantly seasonal conditions helped to maintain winter crop yields above the five-year average. Based on remote-sensing-derived area estimates and observed crop conditions, the production outlook for winter cereals is below the five-year average. In contrast, rapeseed production is expected to increase, driven by an expansion in sown area.
A rainfall deficit persisted in the eastern and northernmost oblasts during most of the cropping season, negatively affecting winter cereals. In the western oblasts, late cold spells in spring compromised the flowering and early pod filling of rapeseed. Nonetheless, timely rainfall and below-average temperatures in May were beneficial for the final development stages of winter crops, further supported by a positive weather forecast until the end of June.
Production forecasts for all winter crops and spring barley are slightly below the five-year average with considerable interregional variability. Field abandonment remains evident, particularly in areas close to the front line of the war. However, Sentinel-2 analysis indicates a relatively stable area of winter cereals in the government-controlled areas along with a notable increase in rapeseed area, particularly in the southern oblasts.
The sowing campaign of summer crops is nearing completion, with a reduction observed in the sown area of grain maize and sunflowers, while the soybean area has increased. Early crop development is reported to be fair, with a good water supply in the western regions, but at risk in the east due to the persistent rainfall deficit. Yield forecasts for summer crops are still in line with the five-year average.
BEN AOUN Wassim;
BUSSAY Attila;
CERRANI Iacopo;
CLAVERIE Martin;
LEMOINE Guido;
MOREL Julien;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
NISINI Luigi;
PANARELLO Lorenzo;
ROSSI Mattia;
TARNAVSKY Elena;
BEN AOUN Wassim;
CLAVERIE Martin;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
2025-06-16
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC141670
2600-2817 (online),
OP KJ-01-25-022-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141670,
10.2760/0264161 (online),
