A closer look at conflict risk: The Dynamic Conflict Risk Model
The Dynamic Conflict Risk Model (DCRM) pro-vides subnational conflict risk assessments with monthly updates and a time horizon of 6 months. The model covers over 2600 administrative areas in 140 countries across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean. The DCRM is being integrated into the EU’s conflict early warning and analysis toolset, supporting country prioritisation, horizon scanning, and near-term risk monitoring. Authorised users can access the monthly DCRM forecast through the Science4Peace portal: https://science4peace.jrc.ec.europa.eu/.
SCHVITZ Guy;
CORBANE Christina;
VALLI Igor;
GENTILE Chiara;
BARDELLI Gianguido;
FERRI Stefano;
GALARIOTIS Ioannis;
2025-04-30
European Commission
JRC141725
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141725,
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