Mid-term Early Warning – anticipating crisis 6 months ahead
Overview of existing knowledge on enhanced situational awareness for crisis management
The world faces increasing instability and humanitarian crises, requiring a shift to pro-active disaster management. Extending early warning timeframes to 6 months or more is crucial for effective anticipatory actions and mitigating disaster im-pacts. The European Commission's JRC is developing a new research line to create actionable mid-term early warning knowledge and deploy a practical early warning system for a 6-month planning window. An integrated multi-hazard framework is crucial for effective early warning systems, considering complex risks and interactions between hazards. Standardized signal detection methods and causal loop diagrams are vital for effective early warning information collection, analysis, and communication. We must create a dynamic, two-way science-policy interface that facilitates continuous knowledge exchange and informs both policy and research.
POLJANSEK Karmen;
RONCO Michele;
VALENTIN Adrien;
BARANTIEV Damyan;
BELMONTE Martina;
CORBANE Christina;
GALARIOTIS Ioannis;
GALMARINI Stefano;
LENTINI Azzurra;
MACHEFER Melissande;
MARZI Sepehr;
MASANTE Dario;
REMBOLD Felix;
ROSINSKA Anna;
RUIZ MORENO Ana;
SALAMON Peter;
SCHVITZ Guy;
SPAGNOLO Luigi;
TORETI Andrea;
VAN AMMEL Raf;
WEILER Sarah Maria;
2025-03-31
European Commission
JRC141738
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141738,
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