Real-Time Forecasting and Mapping Flood Extent from Integrated Hydrologic Models and Satellite Remote Sensing: Case of a Flood Event in Medium Size Basin

This paper presents a comprehensive real-time forecasting and mapping cycle of a regional flood event, encompassing quantitative precipitation forecasting, runoff production and routing, and inundation mapping. The objective of this study is to highlight the significant uncertainties inherent in each step of the fully automated cycle, despite the utilization of state-of-the art models and remote sensing technologies. The case study focuses on a flood event that occurred in an average-sized watershed and river system in rural Iowa, United States, resulting in localized damage and disruption to several small communities. The study demonstrates the limited utility of satellite-based remote sensing in the absence of other forecasting and mapping system elements, emphasizing the need for timely integration of information from diverse sources to accurately forecast and map floods. To achieve this, we assembled and analyzed data from various sources, including precipitation data from weather radars, streamflow estimates derived from river stages and rating curves, and cross-sectional data of river channels to characterize the movement of the flood wave. These data were integrated into hydrologic and hydraulic models to generate flood inundation estimates for the more severely affected areas. Remote sensing imagery was obtained and used as reference to assess the accuracy of modeled inundated areas. Our findings illustrate that, despite the increasing availability of satellite data sources, there are still significant limitations to tracking inundation remotely, particularly for medium-sized basins. Flood modeling processes are not complementary to remote estimation, but necessary for adequate assessment of flood risk.

KRAJEWSKI Witold;  ROJAS Marcela;  QUINTERO Felipe;  NIKOLOPOULOS Efthymios;  CECCATO Pietro; 

2026-02-26

MDPI

JRC142139

2073-4441 (online),   

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/18/5/550,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142139,   

10.3390/w18050550 (online),