Agroforestry as a climate change adaptation strategy: Evidence from Ghana's cocoa sector

Context In sub-Saharan Africa, where most farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, climate change poses serious threats. Agroforestry offers a promising adaptation strategy, with well-documented ecological and economic benefits. Yet, evidence on its role in enhancing household-level resilience to adverse weather events, such as drought, remains limited. Objective We assess how decreases in rainfall affect cocoa yield among agroforestry adopters and non-adopters in Ghana and examine whether these effects vary by regional climatic suitability. Methods We combine a two-wave panel data set of 365 cocoa-producing households with satellite-based climate data. We use a correlated random effects model to estimate the differential effects of reduced rainfall on yield by agroforestry status. To test for heterogeneity, we re-estimate the model for two subsamples located in climatically suitable and less suitable cocoa-growing regions. Results and conclusions We find that on average, agroforestry adopters are less severely affected by reduced rainfall. A one-millimeter decrease in rainfall significantly reduces yield by 2.17 kg/ha for adopters and 2.84 kg/ha for non-adopters. However, when disaggregating between regions, this effect only holds in climatically suitable regions. In less suitable, drier regions, we do not find any significant effects. Our findings suggest that agroforestry could be used as a strategy for adapting to climate change, although more research is needed to understand the conditions under which it would be most effective. Significance We are among the first to use household panel data to econometrically assess the effects of reduced rainfall on yield based on agroforestry adoption in the cocoa sector.

WAETZOLD Marlene;  KRUMBIEGEL Katharina;  TILLIE Pascal;  WOLLNI Meike; 

2025-11-05

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

JRC142298

1873-2267 (online),   

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X25002598,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142298,   

10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104519 (online),