Assessing the impact of climate change on the corrosion of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in major European cities is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies for both existing and future building stock in Europe. This study presents a quantitative evaluation of climate-induced carbonation of RC structures using a simplified probabilistic model. The model estimates carbonation depths under baseline conditions and future climate scenarios, offering insights into the necessary revisions of design standards and safety provisions to ensure long-term serviceability, safety, and durability of European buildings. Results reveal significant increases in carbonation depth over a 60-year period (by 2085), with projected growth ranging from 25% to 45% under an intermediate risk scenario and 58% to 89% under a high-risk scenario. Additionally, the paper discusses key sources of uncertainty that influence lifetime assessments, emphasizing the importance of addressing these uncertainties to improve the climate resilience of the existing and future building stock. The main findings highlight the urgency of climate-resilient measures to safeguard Europe's building infrastructure in the face of a changing climate.

DIMOVA Silvia;  SOUSA Maria Luisa;  BASTIDAS-ARTEAGA Emilio;  GUIDO Rianna;  NOGAL-MACHO Maria;  DOS SANTOS GERVASIO Helena;  POLO LOPEZ Cristina Silvia;  MARTORANA Emilio;  REDER Alfredo;  ATHANASOPOULOU Adamantia; 

2025-09-09

Ernst & Sohn GmbH

JRC142327

2509-7075 (online),   

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cepa.3341,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142327,   

10.1002/cepa.3341 (online),