The main objective of this study is to explore the potential performance improvements and environmental impact of next-generation Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) under various driving conditions. The environmental impact is assessed using a cradle-to-grave (CTG) approach, based on key scenarios from the Hydrogen Roadmap for Europe, alongside the projected evolution of electricity and natural gas (NG) mixes from 2025 to 2050. In the first phase, the performance of next-gen FCVs is tested in terms of H2 consumption and efficiency, using a chassis dynamometer under different driving conditions with a commercial FCV model. The H2 consumption data then feeds into a broader analysis to assess how driving conditions affect the environmental impact based on different H2 production pathways. Lastly, the study evaluates the H2 mix evolution from 2025 to 2050, considering both electrolysis- and SMR-dominant scenarios, with corrections made for discrepancies in the H2 and NG evolution projections. Results indicate that the global warming potential of FCVs could be impacted by 14.3%–15% in 2025 and 7.8–241.1% in 2050, depending on driving patterns with the corresponding H2 mix. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to range from 23.8 to 36 tonnes of CO2 eq. in 2025 and from -14.6 to 9.4 tonnes CO2 eq. in 2050. These findings highlight the significant influence of driving patterns on FCV’s actual global warming impact and stress the importance of considering H2, electricity, and NG mix scenarios together for accurate predictions.

LOPEZ JUAREZ Marcos;  TANSINI Alessandro;  DI PIERRO Giuseppe;  NOVELLA Ricardo;  FONTARAS Georgios; 

2026-04-27

ELSEVIER LTD

JRC142566

2590-1745 (online),   

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590174526003594,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142566,   

10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101876 (online),