Transformative investment strategy for carbon–neutral residential buildings in the European Union

Decarbonizing the residential building sector is crucial to meet the European Union (EU) 2030 energy and climate targets and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. However, about 35 % of EU existing buildings are over 50 years old and almost 75 % are energy inefficient, as built before the introduction of EU or national energy efficiency requirements. Despite the progress made since 2002 with the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive to promote energy efficiency improvements in buildings, the EU building renovation rate remains low at around 1 % in 2020, with many renovations being minor in terms of energy savings. This article examines the renovation needed in the residential sector to reach the new EU 2030 energy efficiency target introduced by the recast Energy Efficiency Directive in 2023. Our analysis of national targets from the 2020 EU Member States Long-Term Renovation Strategies reveals a gap of over 50 % between the projected energy savings and the new energy efficiency target. This highlights the need to realign national renovation strategies for residential buildings with more ambitious overall objectives. To bridge this gap, an average annual renovation rate of 5 % by 2030 was calculated, involving a linear increase in deep renovation to meet the 2030 energy-saving target. The critical need for increased deep renovation and substantial financing necessitates a new EU investment strategy for building renovation. This paper proposes a strategy to accelerate deep renovation, leveraging existing EU and national policies. It outlines a framework for identifying and prioritising buildings, informing homeowners, and motivating them to pursue renovation through One-Stop Shops. The proposal addresses key barriers, advocating for increased end-user support, district-targeted renovation, blended financing, and project aggregation, while aiming to strengthen the supply industry and ensure a skilled workforce.

BERTOLDI Paolo;  MADUTA Carmen;  TSEMEKIDI-TZEIRANAKI Sofia;  D'AGOSTINO Delia;  PACI Daniele;  CLEMENTI Enrico;  CASTELLAZZI Luca; 

2025-08-29

ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA

JRC142708

1872-6178 (online),   

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778825009624,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142708,   

10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116232 (online),