The Role of Biofuels and Bioenergy in the Decarbonisation of the EU Energy System: Insights from the POTEnCIA Model

The transition to a sustainable energy system is a cornerstone of the European Union's strategy to mitigate climate change and achieve the ambitious goals set out in the European Green Deal. Central to this transition is the need to understand the complex dynamics of biofuels and bioenergy within the EU's energy mix. This paper presents a comprehensive modelling approach using the Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment (POTEnCIA), a hybrid partial equilibrium model developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). POTEnCIA evaluates alternative pathways for the EU energy system, integrating energy supply and demand across industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors. The present analysis shows that the consumption of biofuels in the EU increases from around 21 Mtoe in 2025 to 57 Mtoe in 2050, with advanced biofuels production also increasing progressively towards 2050. The production of biofuels from food and feed crops provides progressively minor contributions, while the consumption of biokerosene in the aviation sector and biomethanol in the maritime sector, particularly post-2030, significantly increases. The use of bioenergy for electricity and heat generation is anticipated to remain significant, and the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) becomes increasingly important by 2050.

BUFFI Marco;  SALVUCCI Raffaele;  SCARLAT Nicolae;  RÓZSAI Máté;  WEGENER Moritz;  NEUWAHL Frederik; 

2025-12-04

ETA-FLORENCE RENEWABLE ENERGIES

JRC142886

2282-5819 (online),   

https://www.etaflorence.it/proceedings/?detail=22541,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142886,   

10.5071/33rdEUBCE2025-AP.1.2 (online),