Quantitative early warning models for mixed migration towards the EU
Anticipation and preparedness are key objectives of migration management policies at the EU level. The Migration Preparedness and Crisis Blueprint (Blueprint Network), overseen by DG Migration and Home Affairs, provides an operational framework for monitoring and anticipating migration flows, with the primary goal of supporting the EU’s emergency and crisis response. Within this framework, the development of an early warning system is seen as an essential step to support preparedness and effective, coordinated responses to emerging migration situations. The European Commission is in the process of developing its own early warning methodology to monitor mixed migration flows. This report contributes to this development by proposing an early warning methodology grounded in an empirical analysis of existing approaches to anomaly detection in the policy context and the literature.
The proposed approach features two different early warning models which have been tested on two case studies, selected based on their potential relevance to policy makers. These are the number of asylum applications lodged by Turkish and Egyptian nationals. Results show that both models are effective in detecting early signals of important changes in the series, with one model limiting the rate of false alarms at the expense of missing a few real anomalies, and the other detecting a higher proportion of real anomalies but generating more false alarms.
The work suggests that these methods can provide a robust foundation for an early warning system to support preparedness at the policy level. Policy experts would likely benefit from such a system, as it enables timely monitoring and proactive responses to events that can impact the migration management system.
PINGSDORF Julia;
MINORA Umberto;
DI SALVO Mattia;
BELMONTE Martina;
2025-09-22
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC142976
978-92-68-31270-4 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40441,
OP KJ-01-25-446-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142976,
10.2760/6820414 (online),
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