Early insights from a spatial growth model

This report examines the magnitude and geography of the economic consequences of climate risks in European NUTS3 regions using a new regional economic growth model that accounts for spatial spillover effects. The assessment, based on the JRC PESETA V project, focuses on a 2⁰C scenario of global warming by 2050 and considers seven climate impact categories: labor productivity, droughts, coastal flooding, river flooding, storms, wildfires and transport infrastructure. By 2050, the 2°C global warming scenario could result in an average 0.7% EU GDP loss (0.8% EU consumption loss), accumulating to an undiscounted €2.5 trillion in GDP losses, highlighting a significant economic burden. The results also indicate that there is a large spatial asymmetry in climate risks, affecting more regions in Southern and Eastern European countries (Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Spain and Italy). Northern European regions are more vulnerable to river and coastal flooding, while Southern and Eastern European regions are disproportionately affected by productivity losses, droughts and coastal flooding. The current allocation of European cohesion funds partially mitigates this asymmetric pattern of climate risks.

MONGELLI Ignazio;  AVILA URIBE Antonio;  MAES Joachim;  DURAN LAGUNA Jorge;  FEYEN Luc;  CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos; 

2025-10-22

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC143093

78-92-68-32687-9 (online),    978-92-68-32688-6 (print),   

EUR 40494,    OP KN-01-25-100-EN-N (online),    OP KN-01-25-100-EN-C (print),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC143093,   

10.2776/9583538 (online),    10.2776/3145352 (print),