This study assesses the interactions between land cover changes, climate trends, and soil erosion in driving changes in water levels of lakes in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley, focusing on Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria, Lake Nakuru, Lake Elementaita, and Lake Naivasha. To compensate the lack or inaccessibility of in-situ data, the study exploited several earth observation datasets for performing spatio-temporal analyses with the JRC processing tools including its RUSLE component (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation). At the difference from other studies, this approach integrates together three different components: (1) land cover, (2) climate and (3) soil conditions. The analysis over the period 1990-2020 highlights (1) important land cover changes with important decline of forest and increase of croplands, (2) a gradual rainfall increase with consecutive years with high rainfall since 2010, and (3) an important increase (10 % a year) of the soil erosion since 2000, especially in the cropland areas.
The findings showed the key contributing factors of such impacts on the lake levels rising (up to 77% of the water extent) includes the rainfall and the soil erosion with the same correlation. However, whereas the increase of rainfall cannot be regulated, the soil erosion is linked to important land-cover changes, including deforestation and unsustainable land use, that can be mitigated or regulated by important land use management regulations. A field survey campaign confirmed the severe flooding impacts on settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems, including the proliferation of invasive species Several scenarios of soil erosion were analysed and compared, and soil erosion is projected to rise further by 2050 under various climate scenarios, except if important and cover restorations are implemented.
The study underscores the need to adapt / change the current land management strategies, such as introducing reforestation and conservation practices, to mitigate risks to water security in the face of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. The results highlight the importance of (i) integrating Earth Observation data with land cover modelling tools, (ii) using field information to validate the results and (iii) to involve local stakeholders to support sustainable resource management. Finally, the report provides recommendations to improve land-use management practices in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley.
DESCLÉE Baudouin;
SIMONETTI Dario;
VELASCO GOMEZ Marcela;
ONYWERE Simon;
MAGIGE James;
KAYIJAMAHE Eugène;
OWARE Allan;
MISIANI H O;
ACHARD Frederic;
CLERICI Marco;
2025-12-11
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC143690
978-92-68-35002-7 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40575,
OP KJ-01-25-632-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC143690,
10.2760/3917751 (online),
