Investigations for 2030 and 2040 using METIS
The grid infrastructure is critical for meeting the EU’s energy and climate objectives. This study evaluates the transmission requirements for interconnection of the European electricity network for the years 2030 and 2040. Using the capacity expansion module of the METIS model, calibrated to the TYNDP 2024 National Trends scenario, we identify beneficial interconnector expansion for the European system. The analysis is limited to two years, which simplifies the dynamics of investment cashflows. Moreover, generation capacities and demand are taken as exogenous inputs from the scenario, aggregated to one node per zone, restricting the optimisation to a local point and largely neglecting the need for intrazonal grid reinforcements. Our results indicate substantial potential for additional exchange capacity: 45-48 GW for 2030 and 69-83 GW for 2040, on top of the reference grid that already incorporates several TYNDP candidates. The model also identifies additional electrolyser capacity as beneficial for 2040, whereas no further battery storage is required beyond the large capacities already assumed in the scenario. Despite the methodological constraints, the findings highlight groups of borders at which the benefits of interconnection expansion should be investigated in more detail. For 2040, the results reveal strong interactions between the electricity and hydrogen sectors, suggesting that future integrated analyses should explore these in greater depth. While increased exchange capacities improve price convergence, they will not fully equalise electricity prices across Europe. The study was commissioned, co-designed, co-developed with the Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER), which also provided essential data inputs.
FINCK Rafael;
MILETIC Marija;
TERÇA Gonçalo;
2025-12-11
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC143965
978-92-68-34512-2 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40558,
OP KJ-01-25-607-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC143965,
10.2760/4889954 (online),
