GDO Analytical Report
Drought conditions have affected large parts of south-eastern Europe, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea since early 2025, with a partial and temporary recovery in late spring and another worsening in early summer, with concern for the coming months. Above-average temperatures in January 2025, coinciding with the beginning of rainfall deficits, sped up the onset of the drought, leading to dry soil moisture anomaly in the region. The Low-Flow Index (LFI) increased progressively from December 2024 to August 2025, affecting central and eastern Europe, Türkiye, and the Middle East. Impacts on vegetation were limited in spring when the warmer temperatures accelerated and anticipated vegetation grow, while in early summer adverse vegetation conditions emerged, peaking in July 2025, and continued into the autumn. The statistics on wildfires mirror the impacts of the aforementioned conditions on vegetation. Most of the countries in the area of interest recorded values of burnt area above the previous 18-year average. Seasonal forecasts point to a warmer-than-usual and severely dryer-than-usual 2025 autumn. The drought affected water resources and already caused significant yield losses of summer crops in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Ukraine, and Türkiye, particularly for grain maize and sunflower.
TORETI Andrea;
BAVERA Davide;
ACOSTA NAVARRO Juan;
BARBOSA Paulo;
DE JAGER Alfred;
BEN AOUN Wassim;
BIAVETTI Irene;
BUSSAY Attila;
CLAVERIE Martin;
FICCHI Andrea;
FIORAVANTI Guido;
GRIMALDI Stefania;
HRAST ESSENFELDER Arthur;
KERDILES Herve;
MAGNI Diego;
MAIANTI Pieralberto;
MAZZESCHI Marco;
MCCORMICK Niall;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
REMBOLD Felix;
SALAMON Peter;
SANTOS NUNES Sergio;
SEDANO Fernando;
SEGUINI Lorenzo;
THIEMIG Vera;
VOLPI Danila;
2025-10-30
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC144234
978-92-68-33003-6 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40509,
OP KJ-01-25-540-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144234,
10.2760/7855749 (online),
