Maritime trade plays a central role in the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) economy while contributing to global shipping emissions. Using historical bilateral trade data and Multi-Regional Input-Output modeling from the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2024, this study quantifies the UAE’s maritime energy demand and associated CO2 emissions through 2070. It applies a trade-linked footprint framework that attributes tank-to-wake emissions to UAE-related import and export flows along global routes. In doing so, the study introduces a replicable national-level framework to test the technical–operational feasibility of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s stated ammonia fuel target in international shipping. In 2022, UAE trade-linked shipping emissions were estimated at 7.94 Mt CO2, equivalent to about 0.9% of global international shipping emissions. Scenario analysis of the UAE’s ambition to achieve 75% ammonia use in maritime fuel by 2050 shows that this target is difficult to reach under current trends, mainly due to slow fleet turnover, limited deployment of ammonia-ready engines, fuel cost uncertainty, and the pace of bunkering infrastructure roll-out. The findings highlight the need for stronger policy signals, targeted investment in alternative fuels and port infrastructure, and integrated decarbonization strategies aligned with global climate goals.

SAYEDNA ALI MOHAMMED Abdulla;  RUA RODRIGUEZ ROCHEDO Pedro;  MAYYAS Ahmad;  GARAFFA Rafael; 

2026-08-26

ELSEVIER B.V.

JRC144284

2213-6258 (online),   

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X26002142,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144284,   

10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101918 (online),