The European Union (EU) has committed nearly €175 billion to digital investment across the EU-27 Member States. How much does this spending actually deliver, and who benefits most? We address these questions using a dynamic multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model calibrated for all EU economies, drawing on a novel dataset spanning fifteen categories of digital intervention across five major EU funding instruments. We find that digital investment generates sustained gains in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment across the EU, with significant cross-border spillovers that remain evident twenty years after implementation. Less digitalised economies in Southern and Eastern Europe experience the largest absolute GDP gains, while more advanced economies in Northern and Western Europe achieve higher GDP multipliers, reflecting stronger absorptive capacity and higher levels of economy-wide digital readiness. The positive correlation between digital readiness and investment returns suggests that closing the EU’s digital divide requires not only more investment, but investment targeted at building the conditions under which that investment is most productive.
CASAS Pablo;
CHRISTOU Tryfonas;
GARCIA RODRIGUEZ Abian;
LAZAROU Nicholas Joseph;
LOPEZ COBO Montserrat;
SALOTTI Simone;
SIGNORELLI Serena;
TORRECILLAS JODAR Juan;
TORRECILLA SALINAS Carlos;
2026-08-28
ELSEVIER
JRC144320
1873-6122 (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144320,
10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107741 (online),
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