Long-term care (LTC) refers to a range of services and assistance for people who depend on support for daily living activities and/or are in need of some permanent nursing care, as a result of mental and/or physical frailty, disease and/or disability over an extended period. Older people are the main recipients of LTC, and an ageing population will continue to increase the demand for it, particularly given that longer lifespans are not necessarily accompanied by good health. This poses challenges for the sustainability and adequacy of LTC systems, while also creating opportunities to innovate, improve care quality and develop a robust care sector for the future. Projection models therefore play a crucial role in anticipating LTC needs and guiding policy decisions.
This report presents an overview of existing methodologies to project LTC demand, from defining of care needs to the modelling of formal and informal care use and estimating workforce and expenditure requirements. By mapping the methodological landscape, the report establishes the context in which future projection models could be most useful and effective for policy analysis.
This report sets the foundation for a LTC demand projection model proposed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), covering all Member States of the European Union (EU27). This model allows to estimate changes in LTC demand, and the implications for informal family care burden and formal workforce requirements with a harmonised cross-national perspective. It integrates demographic and household composition projections with data on individuals’ health status and ability to perform daily activities. This model allows for scenario-based analysis at the EU level and will complement the already available projections of public expenditure provided by the EU Ageing Report. The results obtained will support the development of sustainable and adequate care systems to meet the evolving needs of an ageing population, addressing not only longevity but also the shifting realities of family care networks.
BERNINI Alba;
NEDEE Astrid;
NATALE Fabrizio;
2025-12-17
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC144403
978-92-68-35045-4 (online),
978-92-68-35046-1 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
1018-5593 (print),
EUR 40576,
EUR 40576 (print),
OP KJ-01-25-635-EN-N (online),
OP KJ-01-25-635-EN-C (print),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144403,
10.2760/6436972 (online),
10.2760/1282893 (print),
