A strategic foresight study identifying priority capabilities and emerging technologies towards 2040

This report presents the results of a strategic foresight study aimed at supporting European Union policy developments and strategic planning, particularly Research & Innovation (R&I) funding in the destination A Disaster-Resilient Society for Europe. In the context of an increasingly complex and interconnected risk landscape, the study adopts a forward-looking and capability-based approach to strengthen the EU’s preparedness and response capacity. The analysis integrates a strategic foresight methodology combining literature review, horizon scanning, expert surveys, interviews, and participatory workshops. This multi-stage process enabled the identification, validation, and prioritisation of key operational capabilities and emerging technologies relevant for disaster and infrastructure resilience towards 2040. A total of 12 priority capabilities and 12 high-potential emerging technologies were selected through a triangulation of quantitative and qualitative evidence. The study is anchored in a capability-centred framework, placing operational needs at the core of the analysis and linking them with technological innovation and policy objectives. This approach allows for the systematic identification of capability gaps and investment priorities, while ensuring alignment between R&I activities and real-world operational requirements. At the same time, the integration of strategic foresight enables the exploration of future developments, uncertainties, and disruptive trends, supporting more anticipatory and adaptive policymaking. By bridging the gap between policy, operations, and technological development, this report provides an evidence-based foundation for more strategic and forward-looking EU action in disaster and infrastructure resilience. It contributes to the development of a cross-cutting understanding, supports the prioritisation of investments, and strengthens the integration of foresight into long-term planning for civil security.

TASOULAS Vasileios;  SKIADARESIS Giannis;  DE MALEVILLE Alexandra;  FAVINO Rosella;  REDECKER Christine;  SANGIORGI Marco;  SFALAGKIARIS Christos Emmanouil;  PUIE Marian;  MONTALTI Eugenio;  TRIPENI Michele;  GALARIOTIS Ioannis; 

2026-06-25

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC144571

978-92-68-41023-3 (online),   

1831-9424 (online),   

EUR 40767,    OP KJ-01-26-275-EN-N (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144571,   

10.2760/8720215 (online),