An index decomposition analysis
This report examines the determinants of changes in primary and final energy consumption at EU27 and Member State levels over the period 2010 to 2023 to track and understand the progress towards 2030 energy efficiency targets and beyond. Energy consumption trends are driven by several factors beyond energy efficiency improvements, which can have a profound effect in the aggregate energy use, irrespective of the impact of energy efficiency policies and measures. To understand the latest energy consumption trends in the EU, the Logarithmic-Mean Divisia Index
(LMDI) approach, a widely used Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA) method, was applied to study both aggregated and sectoral energy consumption changes at EU and Member State levels over the examined period and quantify the impact of factors such as economic activity, demographics, productivity, lifestyle and weather changes. The results suggest significant energy efficiency gains from 2010 to 2023, without which the progress achieved towards 2030 EU energy efficiency targets would have been difficult to attain. However, any analysis for the recent years should be considered with caution as they have been significantly influenced by exceptional external factors. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a drop in energy consumption, followed by a rebound effect once the restrictions were raised. Starting in 2022, the Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine (was preceded from and) resulted in an increase in energy prices (especially for gas) with strong interventions by the EU and Member States to limit energy consumption. With the aim to investigate the evolution of the determinant factors of energy consumption, an analysis of the energy consumption projections for selected sectors (i.e., industry, services, agriculture and residential) up to 2050 at the European level has been carried out.
CLEMENTI Enrico;
TSEMEKIDI-TZEIRANAKI Sofia;
PACI Daniele;
2026-01-23
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC144708
978-92-68-35333-2 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40597,
OP KJ-01-25-678-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144708,
10.2760/6345810 (online),
