Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the ELUC, SOCEAN and SLAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr−1), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr−1, leaving a large negative BIM (−1.7 GtC yr−1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

FRIEDLINGSTEIN P;  O’SULLIVAN Michael;  W. JONES Matthew;  ANDREW Robbie;  BAKKER Dorothee C. E.;  HAUCK Judith;  LANDSCHÜTZER Peter;  LE QUÉRÉ Corinne;  LUIJKX Ingrid T.;  PETERS Glen P.;  PETERS Wouter;  PONGRATZ Julia;  SCHWINGSHACKL Clemens;  SITCH Stephen;  CANADELL Josep G.;  CIAIS Philippe;  JACKSON Robert B.;  ALIN Simone R.;  ANTHONI Peter;  BARBERO Leticia;  BATES Nicholas;  BECKER Meike;  BELLOUIN Nicolas;  DECHARME Bertrand;  BOPP Laurent;  BRASIKA Ida Bagus Mandhara;  CADULE Patricia;  CHAMBERLAIN Matthew A.;  CHANDRA Naveen;  CHAU Thi-Tuyet-Trang;  CHEVALLIER Frédéric;  CHINI Louise P.;  CRONIN Margot;  DOU Xinyu;  ENYO Kazutaka;  EVANS Wiley;  FALK Stefanie;  FEELY Richard A.;  FENG Liang;  FORD Daniel J.;  GASSER Thomas;  GHATTAS Josefine;  GKRITZALIS Thanos;  GRASSI Giacomo;  GREGOR Luke;  GRUBER N.;  GÜRSES Ö;  HARRIS Ian;  HEFNER Matthew;  HEINKE Jens;  HOUGHTON Richard A.;  HURTT G.;  IIDA Yosuke;  ILYINA Tatiana;  JACOBSON A. R.;  JAIN A.K.;  JARNÍKOVÁ Tereza;  JERSILD Annika;  JIANG Fei;  JIN Zhe;  JOOS Fortunat;  KATO Etsushi;  KEELING Ralph F.;  KENNEDY Daniel;  KLEIN GOLDEWIJK Kees;  KNAUER Juergen;  KORSBAKKEN Jan Ivar;  KÖRTZINGER Arne;  LAN Xin;  LEFÈVRE Nathalie;  HONGMEI Li;  LIU Junjie;  LIU Zhiqiang;  MA Lei;  MARLAND G.;  MAYOT Nicolas;  MCGUIRE Patrick C.;  MCKINLEY Galen A.;  MEYER Gesa;  MORGAN Eric J.;  MUNRO David R.;  NAKAOKA Shin-Ichiro;  NIWA Y;  O'BRIEN Kevin;  OLSEN Are;  OMAR Abdirahman M.;  ONO Tsuneo;  PAULSEN Melf;  PIERROT Denis;  POCOCK Katie;  POULTER Benjamin;  POWIS Carter;  REHDER Gregor;  RESPLANDY Laure;  ROBERTSON Eddy;  RÖDENBECK Christian;  ROSAN Thais M.;  SCHWINGER Jörg;  SÉFÉRIAN Roland;  SMALLMAN T. Luke;  SMITH Stephen M.;  SOSPEDRA-ALFONSO Reinel;  SUN Qing;  SUTTON Adrienne J.;  SWEENEY Colm;  TAKAO Shintaro;  TANS Pieter P.;  TIAN Hanqin;  TILBROOK Bronte;  TSUJINO Hiroyuki;  TUBIELLO Francesco;  VAN DER WERF Guido R.;  VAN OOIJEN Erik;  WANNINKHOF Rik;  WATANABE Michio;  WIMART-ROUSSEAU Cathy;  YANG Dongxu;  YANG Xiaojuan;  YUAN Wenping;  YUE Xu;  ZAEHLE Sönke;  ZENG Jiye;  ZHENG Bo; 

2026-06-16

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH

JRC144859

1866-3516 (online),   

https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC144859,   

10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 (online),