Using the MAGNET recursive-dynamic CGE model, we quantify AfCFTA non-tariff measure (NTM) reforms. We advance the methodology by modeling regulatory spillovers as public goods, deviating from standard Vinerian assumptions. Results indicate spillovers generate welfare gains up to 16 times larger than tariff cuts. However, a structural tradeoff emerges: while maximizing aggregate efficiency, spillovers risk crowding out domestic manufacturing by reinforcing comparative advantages in primary commodities. This disproportionately benefits resource-rich economies and threatens broader continental industrialization goals. We conclude that successful integration requires strategic sequencing of input harmonization and targeted adjustment funds to counteract these de-industrialization risks and manage the efficiency-industrialization tension.
SIMOLA Antti;
BOYSEN Ole;
FERRARI Emanuele;
NECHIFOR Victor;
2026-06-08
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
JRC145067
1873-8060 (online),
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893826000414,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC145067,
10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.107047 (online),
| Name | Country | City | Type |
|---|
This document is only visible at the Commission level.
You are not authorized to publish or distribute it outside the European Commission.
This is a public document. You can share this publication.
Datasets
| ID | Title | Public URL |
|---|
Dataset collections
| ID | Acronym | Title | Public URL |
|---|
Scripts / source codes
| Description | Public URL |
|---|
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type |
|---|