Evidence from statistical analysis in a polycrisis context

Europe faces a set of interconnected crises in which economic, geopolitical, environmental, and social challenges interact and increase societal vulnerability. Strengthening societal resilience is a stated priority in this polycrisis context. This report reviews existing societal resilience measurement frameworks and applies linear mixed-effects and nonlinear GAMM models to assess how different factors are associated with variation in perceived resilience across EU Member States. The results indicate that education, income, employment stability, household support structures, and demographic characteristics are among the most consistent factors contributing to citizens’ personal resilience capacity, while exposure to violence and prior disaster experience show associations with resilience that are different per level (citizen, household, community, country). The modelling approach also identifies structural capacities — digital, environmental, socioeconomic, geopolitical, and rule of law — which contribute to people’s resilience capacity, but in non-linear ways, depending on broader governance and contextual conditions. These findings point to the need for further integration of European microdata and for dynamic modelling tools able to capture multilevel interactions, in support of the EU's Preparedness Union and of more targeted, anticipatory, and equitable societal resilience policies.

REDECKER Christine;  GALARIOTIS Ioannis;  CATALDO Fabian;  MONTANARI Elia;  CAPPANNINI Andrea; 

2026-06-12

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC145222

978-92-68-40347-1 (online),   

1831-9424 (online),   

EUR 40750,    OP KJ-01-26-253-EN-N (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC145222,   

10.2760/9452918 (online),