Security implications of the green energy transition
The green energy transition is essential for mitigating climate change risks, yet it introduces its own set of uncertainties. Structural decline in oil revenues, coupled with rising competition for the critical minerals needed to power that transition, creates particular challenges for oil-dependent states. While critical mineral mining is associated with low-intensity conflict, it is unlikely to produce the same resource curse dynamics as oil or replicate the conflict patterns seen with diamonds. Nonetheless, these transition-related risks must be kept in perspective: higher global warming under weak climate policy scenarios poses far more severe security risks than those arising from petroleum revenue losses and critical mineral competition combined.
VON UEXKULL Nina;
BUHAUG Halvard;
SCHVITZ Guy;
2026-03-31
European Commission
JRC145738
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC145738,
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