Climate change, conflict and fragility are converging in the same places, concentrating displacement risks in countries least able to absorb shocks. Nearly 80% of people displaced by conflict or disasters originate from fragile contexts, where climate stress multiplies existing governance and economic pressures and can trap households in cycles of violence and involuntary immobility. Evidence shows that social protection, inclusive resource governance, safe mobility pathways and climate investment can weaken these negative feedback loops and turn mobility into a driver of resilience. Financing patterns, however, remain skewed toward short-term humanitarian response rather than long-term prevention. Rebalancing development, climate and private investment toward fragile and displacement-affected settings is therefore central to EU efforts linking climate action, security and migration governance.

TALÒ Teresa;  MAJORANO SARAPO Francesca; 

2026-03-19

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC145853

978-92-68-38194-6 (online),   

1831-9424 (online),   

EUR 40657,    OP KJ-01-26-122-EN-N (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC145853,   

10.2760/4931905 (online),