Climate security, migration and fragility
This brief examines how climate change interacts with conflict, fragility and human mobility. Evidence shows that climate change rarely acts as a direct cause of violence or displacement, but rather as a risk multiplier that intensifies existing political, economic and social vulnerabilities. Two main pathways are identified: climate stress can contribute to conflict that drives displacement, and it can increase migration pressures that may heighten local tensions. At the same time, mobility, remittances and shock-responsive social protection can strengthen resilience and weaken these negative dynamics when supported by effective institutions. Policy responses should therefore combine conflict-sensitive adaptation, expanded social protection, safe migration pathways and inclusive urbanisation to reduce forced displacement risks.
TALÒ Teresa;
2026-04-02
European Commission
JRC146054
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC146054,
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