Heatwaves accelerated winter crop ripening and are threatening summer crops
Repeated heatwaves shortened the grain-filling phase of winter crops and brought forward the harvest, which has already been completed in the south and is progressing elsewhere. EU yield forecasts for winter crops have been revised downwards by 1–4 %, leaving the outlook for total cereals at 1 % below the five-year average.
For summer crops, exceptional heat and limited rainfall across western and central Europe depleted soil moisture, constrained biomass accumulation and affected flowering. Yield forecasts have been reduced for all spring and summer crops, most notably for grain maize and sunflowers (6–7 %). Hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist in western Europe, increasing the likelihood of further yield reductions.
This edition includes an extended analysis of Türkiye, where a cool, wet spring supported record-high winter crop yields and favourable prospects for summer crops.
BEN AOUN Wassim;
BIAVETTI Irene;
BUSSAY Attila;
CERRANI Iacopo;
CLAVERIE Martin;
DE PALMA Pierluca;
FUMAGALLI Davide;
HENIN Riccardo;
LUQUE REYES Jose;
MOREL Julien;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
NISINI Luigi;
PANARELLO Lorenzo;
ROSSI Mattia;
SEGUINI Lorenzo;
TARNAVSKY Elena;
THIEMIG Vera;
TODOROFF Pierre;
ZUCCHINI Antonio;
THIEMIG Vera;
BEN AOUN Wassim;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
2026-07-27
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC146186
2443-8278 (online),
OP KJ-01-26-006-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC146186,
10.2760/5926801 (online),
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