Favourable yield outlook despite regional challenges
Persistent dry weather since February has negatively affected winter crops in western Ukraine, while repeated cold spells in February and April reduced rapeseed yield potential in several central oblasts.
Elsewhere, favourable conditions supported crop development, particularly in the south and east. Consequently, soft wheat and winter barley yields are forecast to be above the 5-year average, whereas rapeseed yield estimates remain close to average but below the trend.
Following an exceptionally dry March, rainfall deficits persisted throughout spring in western oblasts, leading to increasing water stress during the reproductive stages of winter cereals. In contrast, winter crops in central, southern and eastern Ukraine benefited from favourable water supply. Rapeseed entered spring in good condition, but cold spells in February and April damaged flowering and early pod development, reducing the yield potential. Crop-specific Sentinel-2 profiles confirmed the contrasting regional crop development and the impact of spring frosts on rapeseed.
Despite favourable yield prospects, soft wheat and barley production remains close to the 5-year average due to the continued decline in cereal areas, particularly in non-government-controlled areas and regions close to the front line. In contrast, the rapeseed area has expanded substantially, resulting in production above both the 5-year average and the 2025 level.
The sowing campaign for summer crops was delayed by cold conditions, frost events and dry weather in March. Nevertheless, beneficial rainfall during April and early May, combined with warmer conditions from mid May onwards, improved growing conditions, and supported yield forecasts remaining close to trend.
BEN AOUN Wassim;
BIAVETTI Irene;
BUSSAY Attila;
CERRANI Iacopo;
CLAVERIE Martin;
COLLIVIGNARELLI Francesco;
HENIN Riccardo;
MERONI Michele;
MOREL Julien;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
NISINI Luigi;
PANARELLO Lorenzo;
ROSSI Mattia;
TARNAVSKY Elena;
TODOROFF Pierre;
CLAVERIE Martin;
BEN AOUN Wassim;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
2026-06-15
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC146592
2600-2817 (online),
OP KJ-01-26-001-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC146592,
10.2760/9934414 (online),
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