Forests occupy a central place in various policies related to biodiversity, climate, material substitution, and energy in Europe. In an age of increasing threats to forests due to natural and human drivers, information on ecosystem services trade-offs and possible forest pathways is key for informed debates. In this study we address policy options through the development of a range of scenarios of forest use intensity, driven by explicit changes in the allocation of forest area across a gradient of management intensity levels. We aim to evaluate trade-offs between wood production and forest ecosystem services, and to assess long-term scenarios of biomass flows addressing the causal effects between forest use intensity and the supply of services across European forests. A forestry model was used first to assess trade-offs between wood production and other forest ecosystem services, and second, to implement scenarios of forest systems describing the supply of a range of ecosystems services, from wood to climate regulation and biodiversity. Significant trade-offs between services and wood production were identified across ecoregions and a gradient of management intensity. While we found significant options for deintensification of forest use and enhancing the provision of biodiversity and climate services, options for further intensification appears to be limited, and contrasting with biodiversity and climate policy. The adoption of an ecosystem-based approach to policies that affect forests is necessary to understand the multiple trade-offs and synergies within the system, as well as its sensitivity to intensification and deintensification drivers.

BARREDO Jose I.;  PILLI Roberto;  GIUNTOLI Jacopo;  MUBAREKA Sarah Betoul; 

2026-09-29

ELSEVIER B.V.

JRC146864

2666-7193 (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC146864,   

10.1016/j.tfp.2026.101496 (online),