JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis No 04/2026

This study examines the drivers of population change in EU settlements, focusing on villages and towns, and analyses the influence of local characteristics and broader area-based factors on population trends. Settlements are defined using the Degree of Urbanisation method at a one-square-kilometre spatial resolution, enabling consistent cross-country comparisons. Comparing the 2021 and 2011 censuses, the study identifies patterns of population change related to key settlement dimensions, including: I) spatial characteristics and functional ranking, II) demographic characteristics, III) quality of infrastructure, spatial and digital accessibility, IV) public and private service provision and tourism capacity, and V) geographical and climate-related characteristics. Results indicate that faster population growth is associated with higher employment rates, a larger share of working-age and foreign-born residents, larger area, proximity to cities, beaches, and train stations, presence of public services (e.g., schools and hospitals), robust road and broadband infrastructure, as well as status as a city, capital city, or regional centre or part of a Functional Urban Area (FUA). In contrast, population decline is linked to higher initial population density and population size, more hot or frosty days, higher tourism capacity, proximity to national land borders, and location within a Functional Rural Area (FRA).

KOMPIL Mert;  PROIETTI Paola;  DORATI Chiara;  JACOBS-CRISIONI Chris;  DIJKSTRA Lewis; 

2026-06-19

European Commission

JRC146884

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC146884,