The report evaluates the economic potential and viability of a biological nitrogen‑fixation (BNF) technology based on genetically edited microorganisms for use in European maize production. the report surveys the existing portfolio of nitrogen‑reduction technologies and presents a synthesis of performance data and case‑study evidence on product development. The review covers conventional measures (precision fertiliser placement, nitrification and urease inhibitors, enhanced‑efficiency fertilisers, cover crops and legume‑based rotations) and contrasts them with emerging biological solutions, in particular inoculants based on genetically edited microorganisms that enable biological nitrogen fixation (BNF).
Building on this literature foundation, the analysis integrates (i) a historical nitrogen‑price series and a deterministic break‑even framework, (ii) a Markov‑switching model combined with Monte‑Carlo simulations to estimate the probability that the BNF inoculant is economically viable across a 3 x 3 grid of maize‑price and inoculant‑cost scenarios, and (iii) a partial‑equilibrium CAPRI model that captures production, income, market‑feedback and trade effects.
Results indicate that higher nitrogen market prices and greater societal valuation of a 1 kg N reduction substantially raise the probability of viability, whereas full market feedback can offset farm‑level income gains through price depressions. Nevertheless, the technology consistently yields a net reduction in nitrogen surplus across most EU regions, confirming its mitigation potential.
The combined literature review and quantitative assessment provides a holistic evidence base for EU policymakers to evaluate the trade‑offs between agronomic performance, farmer profitability and environmental benefits when considering the development, regulation and deployment of gene‑edited BNF technologies.
BUREN Stefan;
PALACIOS Jose;
AREAL Francisco José;
TASSINARI Gianmaria;
RODRIGUEZ CEREZO Emilio;
BARREIRO HURLE Jesus;
2026-06-30
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC147146
978-92-68-41158-2 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40772,
OP KJ-01-26-283-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC147146,
10.2760/8354314 (online),
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