The occurrence of the 2026-27 El Niño event is virtually certain based on all the seasonal forecast modelling systems contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This event is also expected to reach very high intensity, with forecasts indicating a high likelihood of a very strong event that may even evolve into an unprecedented one. Drawing on multi-century climate model simulations, seasonal forecasting systems, and socio-economic data, this report analyses potential impacts across several dimensions and the regional responses to different El Niño categories.
It is important to remark that the effects of El Niño build on top of the ongoing global warming, existing vulnerabilities and crises. On the climate dimension, the analysis identifies hot-spots of temperature and water-related anomalies and extremes in America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania varying according to the intensity of El Niño. It also points to nonlinear response to a possible unprecedented event in regions such as Europe, where warmer conditions may occur in autumn and intensify in spring 2027. El Niño can cause severe, systemic impacts across sectors and natural systems due to the concurrent and compounding risks it triggers by, globally, amplifying extremes and anomalous climate conditions. Since agriculture may represent one of the main transmission channels of socio-economic impacts, the response of global food prices is here analysed. The estimated outlook for the main commodity crops is characterised by high uncertainties, although overall price increases are estimated for durum wheat and (with less clear tendency) for maize.
On population exposure to climate hazards, the impacts scale sharply with El Niño intensity, with Oceania, Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern and Southeastern Asia, and Latin America facing the greatest burdens, particularly among vulnerable demographic groups. On human mobility, it is difficult to make accurate predictions as past evidence points to systematic undercounting of drought-driven displacement and the critical but invisible risk of involuntary immobility among the poorest populations. Across all dimensions, the predictability of El Niño and the coherent signal provided by
the current seasonal forecasts represent key assets for anticipatory actions and provide a valuable window to prepare and reduce risks.
ACOSTA NAVARRO Juan;
TORETI Andrea;
BAVERA Davide;
BARANTIEV Damyan;
CARIOLI Alessandra;
CEGLAR Andrej;
COLLIVIGNARELLI Francesco;
CORBANE Christina;
DE GROEVE Tom;
DE JAGER Alfred;
DENTENER Frank;
DEUSTER Christoph;
GALMARINI Stefano;
KEMPER Thomas;
KOZMA Radoslav;
MAGNI Diego;
MASTRONUNZIO Marco;
POLITIS Panagiotis;
POLJANSEK Karmen;
REMBOLD Felix;
ROGNA Marco;
SALAMON Peter;
SANTINI Marzia;
MAJORANO SARAPO Francesca;
SCHAFFHAUSER Timo;
MARZI Sepehr;
TALÒ Teresa;
2026-06-15
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC147365
978-92-68-40855-1 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40756,
OP KJ-01-26-262-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC147365,
10.2760/8279279 (online),
| Name | Country | City | Type |
|---|
This document is only visible at the Commission level.
You are not authorized to publish or distribute it outside the European Commission.
This is a public document. You can share this publication.
Datasets
| ID | Title | Public URL |
|---|
Dataset collections
| ID | Acronym | Title | Public URL |
|---|
Scripts / source codes
| Description | Public URL |
|---|
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type |
|---|