This report proposes a novel method for disaggregating the global population by age, sex and three settlement categories—cities, towns and rural areas. The proposed approach relies on the concept of a gradient of settlement types. This concept assumes that age-specific populations as a proportion of total population by settlement type can be connected via a straight line. To test this hypothesis, we compile subnational sex- and age-disaggregated population data for a wide range of countries and territories worldwide, at a detailed spatial resolution equivalent to the fourth administrative division or finer. Analysing these data supports the key assumption of the gradient approach. We further exploit the correlations of these data with a key demographic variable to estimate the required components of the gradient approach. This allows us to fully implement the approach and to impute disaggregated population by age, sex and degree of urbanisation for 237 countries or areas from 1950 to 2050. Our analysis provides a total of more than two million data points. The imputed disaggregated data reflect some of the general cohort-related fluctuations in population estimates and reveal important population trends by settlement type.

ALESSANDRINI Alfredo;  CARIOLI Alessandra;  DEUSTER Christoph;  DIJKSTRA Lewis;  NATALE Fabrizio;  KEMPER Thomas;  SCHIAVINA Marcello; 

2026-09-18

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC148186

978-92-68-43563-2 (online),    978-92-68-43564-9 (print),   

1831-9424 (online),    1018-5593 (print),   

EUR 40856,    EUR 40856 (print),    OP KJ-01-26-391-EN-N (online),    OP KJ-01-26-391-EN-C (print),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC148186,   

10.2760/7574081 (online),    10.2760/1042190 (print),