Real-time Geostatistics for Atmospheric Dispersion Forecasting; and Vice Versa?

Abstract

The possible role of geostatistics in real time atmospheric dispersion modelling is analysed and discussed from the atmospheric dispersion modelling view point. Expectations are presented with respect to the possible development of an objective analysis of real-time monitoring data for a rapid understanding of the problem and for a better use of data for atmospheric dispersion model evaluation and amelioration. The paper describes also a real joker case occurred in 1998 in Europe and tries to outline what could be done should a objective analysis have been available at that time. In the last section a speculation is presented that relates the possible synergies between geostatistical analysis and atmospheric dispersion modelling.