On the Need of Exact Probabilistic Quantification in FT/ET Analysis

Qualitative and quantitative analyses of Fault Trees have been traditionally carried out employing the cut set approach. This necessarily forces the use of various approximations which are usually acceptable for highly reliable systems (e.g. nuclear power plants safety systems) but are not suitable for other applications e.g. vulnerability and security. In this paper the limits of probabilistic quantifications of FT/ET based on the so called bound approaches are discussed by also presenting a number of applications where these approaches fail. Reference is made to JRC’s ASTRA tool set, based on the BDD approach allowing exact qualitative and quantitative analysis.

COJAZZI Giacomo;  CONTINI Sergio;  RENDA Guido; 

2005-12-12

A.A. Balkema Publishers

JRC31401

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC31401,