Title: Hydrocarbon Exploration Risk Evaluation Through Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Techniques
Citation: RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY vol. 91 p. 1155-1162
Publication Year: 2006
JRC N°: JRC31445
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC31445
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental com¬ponent of the decision process related to the ex¬ploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sen¬sitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geo¬metric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncer¬tainty. The geometric uncertainty evalua¬tion makes use of geostatistical techniques, that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, to¬gether with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure prob¬ability map, the drainage area prob¬ability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap filling scenarios.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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