Hydrocarbon Exploration Risk Evaluation Through Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Techniques

The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental com¬ponent of the decision process related to the ex¬ploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sen¬sitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geo¬metric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncer¬tainty. The geometric uncertainty evalua¬tion makes use of geostatistical techniques, that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, to¬gether with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure prob¬ability map, the drainage area prob¬ability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap filling scenarios.

RUFFO Paolo;  BAZZANA Livia;  CONSONNI Alberto;  CORRADI Anna;  SALTELLI Andrea;  TARANTOLA Stefano; 

2006-10-18

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

JRC31445

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC31445,   

10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.056,