Experiences with the NUSAP System for Multidimensional Uncertainty Assessment

This paper discusses recent experiences with the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides a analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We further show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.

CRAYE Matthieu;  FUNTOWICZ Silvio; 

2006-02-08

International Water Association (IWA) Publishing

JRC31449